Aid workers are bracing for a crush of refugees in the coming weeks. The economy is cratering. Internet access has been cut or limited for millions. Humanitarian groups on the Thai border say greater numbers of people are fleeing a country teetering on collapse. The international community fears the conflict could escalate into a volatile diplomatic standoff in a part of the world contested by major powers such as China, India, Russia and the U.
The legitimacy of the Assn. Blinken said. But the military, known as the Tatmadaw, has given no indication it will refrain from brute force in a crisis that could leave it ruling over a wasteland of devastated cities and ruined villages. Idle businesses, uncollected taxes. Protesters say labor strikes and civil disobedience are the only ways to dislodge the military dictatorship in Myanmar.
It may mean pushing millions into poverty. Cellphone video from the scene showed survivors with extensive wounds. Townspeople battled soldiers with hunting rifles. North of Kalay in the Chin stronghold of Tamu, four soldiers were killed by civilians over the weekend.
The attack was in response to a violent crackdown by security forces last month. A year-old resident of the city who spoke on condition of anonymity said civilians lobbed homemade bombs to attack soldiers.
The arms used in these attacks have reportedly included rockets, stun grenades, Molotov cocktails and improvised explosive devices. One experienced observer has suggested that some of the most recent attacks may be the result of collaboration between the EAGs and pro-democracy dissidents, with the latter providing the rural-based insurgents with intelligence about their intended targets.
This is possible, but members of the opposition movement have clearly conducted some attacks themselves. Before February, it had to deal with relatively well-armed and battle-hardened guerrillas in the countryside, with occasional, usually ineffectual, bomb attacks in the cities.
Now there is the prospect of a coordinated campaign by the EAGs in the rural districts and attacks in urban areas from dissidents trained and armed by these groups. Such a campaign is unlikely to topple the regime ensconced in Naypyidaw, but it would certainly stretch the Tatmadaw.
The army is used to fighting on many fronts with limited resources, but simultaneous operations in different parts of the country, coupled with terrorist bombings throughout central Myanmar, would be a challenge. The generals know this, hence their efforts to divide the EAGs and buy off some such as the Arakan Army with separate peace deals. As for the dissidents, it is hard to see their efforts at waging war against the military regime as being successful.
Isolated attacks will not bring down the junta, nor force it to accept a more democratic government. View the discussion thread.
Myanmar and a new kind of civil war. Commitments of foreign aid from the West and the major multilateral agencies have stalled, but disbursements from past commitments are contributing to substantial improvements right now in infrastructure and basic health and education services. Real estate prices and hotel room rates in Yangon have fallen from stratospheric levels to more sensible and sustainable levels. The underbelly of this economic progress is the pervasive rent-seeking activity of the business elite, allied with the military, including smuggling and drug production.
Land is easily expropriated by the rich and powerful. The banking system is at the brink of a crisis. These and other fundamental economic weaknesses could have an impact on the national election due to be held in November Most analysts are predicting another victory of the NLD, but not by the same margin because of disaffection among the ethnic minorities who generally supported NLD candidates in the election.
In addition, the slower pace of economic reforms could be a source of disaffection among the Bamar majority reflected in a low turnout or more votes for new parties. Which brings us back to the topic of peace.
Aung San Suu Kyi restructured the peace process initiated by the prior military-led government. Sadly, there have been no breakthroughs. Fighting continues, with both sides seeking to maintain or gain control of natural resources jade, timber, land, etc.
Ms Suu Kyi's international reputation has suffered greatly as a result of Myanmar's treatment of the Rohingya minority. Myanmar considers them illegal immigrants and denies them citizenship. Over decades, many have fled the country to escape persecution. Thousands of Rohingya were killed and more than , fled to Bangladesh following an army crackdown in Ms Suu Kyi appeared before the International Court of Justice in , where she denied allegations that the military had committed genocide.
Numerous countries have condemned the military takeover and subsequent crackdown. China blocked a UN Security Council statement condemning the coup, but has backed calls for the release of Ms Suu Kyi and a return to democratic norms.
The country has previously opposed international intervention in Myanmar. South East Asian countries have been pursuing diplomatic efforts to end the crisis. Calls for Suu Kyi release after Myanmar army coup. Aung San Suu Kyi: Democracy icon who fell from grace.
What's happened in Myanmar so far? How a peace icon ended up at a genocide trial. What you need to know about the Rohingya crisis. Image source, EPA. Mya Thwe Thwe Khaing was the first person to be killed in the unrest. Where is Myanmar?
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